Trend Mapping

The method involves identifying and organising changes taking place in a selected area. It helps students structure complex phenomena and examine change from a longer-term perspective. It teaches students to distinguish short-term fashions from significant trends and to combine technological, social, and economic signals into a coherent picture of the future. It strengthens strategic thinking, information synthesis, and the ability to work under conditions of uncertainty. The method is particularly useful when decisions must be made despite incomplete data, especially when considering their long-term consequences. Students begin by collecting signals of change, such as new technologies, regulations, customer behaviours, or emerging business models. Next, they group these signals into broader trends and analyse their possible impact on organisations, markets, or society. The key element is synthesis: moving from scattered information to an organised trend map that shows relationships between phenomena and potential development scenarios. The lecturer’s role is to moderate the discussion and ensure that the trends identified are based on observable phenomena and data. This method can be enriched with specific analytical tools. STEEPVL analysis enables the systematic examination of signals of change in social, technological, economic, environmental, political, values-based, and legal areas. An impact–uncertainty matrix helps assess the significance of trends for an organisation and the likelihood of their occurrence, while horizon scanning supports the monitoring of the external environment to detect early signals that may later develop into dominant market phenomena.

Course: Strategic Management
Topic: Trends Shaping the Future of Financial Services in the EU
Students act as the strategy team of a digital bank operating in the European market. The bank’s management board has asked them to prepare a preliminary analysis of trends that may shape the development of financial services over the next five years.

Warm-Up (10 min)
The lecturer asks: What changes in financial services have you noticed as a user? Students note their initial observations, such as the use of mobile apps, contactless payments, automated investment services, or buy now, pay later solutions. The objective is to encourage students to recognise changes already visible in everyday experience.

Collecting Signals of Change (15–20 min)
Teams analyse short extracts from reports, articles, and datasets related to fintech, regulation, customer behaviour, and emerging technologies. These may include artificial intelligence in banking, open banking, digital identity, or green finance. Each team identifies 8–10 signals of change and records them as short statements or keywords.

Grouping and Mapping Trends (20–25 min)
Students combine similar signals into broader trend clusters and give them working titles, such as automation of financial decision-making, regulatory transparency, green finance, or embedded banking. Teams then assess each trend’s potential impact on the banking sector and its likely time horizon: short-, medium-, or long-term.

Strategic Conclusions (10–15 min)
Each team identifies two key trends most likely to shape the bank’s future service offering and one uncertain trend that is difficult to predict but could prove transformative. Students briefly justify their choices.

Reflection (5 min)
To conclude, participants respond to the question: Which trend seems the least obvious but could have the greatest impact? A short discussion allows teams to compare perspectives and see how the same signals of change can be interpreted in different ways.

• When developing strategy and designing new offerings.
• When the aim is to foster long-term thinking.
• In analyses conducted with incomplete data.

• When rapid operational decisions are required.
• When dealing with very narrow or highly technical problems.

• Confusing trends with fashions → require evidence and examples.
• Overgeneralising → work with specific signals of change.

Easier → Provide predefined trend categories.
More Challenging → Ask students to develop short future scenarios.

• Always start with signals, not trends.
• Separate observations from interpretations.
• Work with a timeline and impact axis.
• Compare maps prepared by different teams.
• Return to the map after a few weeks.

Formative Assessment

During the activity, collect brief interim outputs from each team, such as a list of signals of change, preliminary trend clusters, or a justification for selecting the most significant trend. Based on these outputs, provide feedback by indicating which signals are well documented, where the group moves too quickly from observation to interpretation, and which trends require stronger justification. Students then revise the map, refine the names of the trends, and add any missing data or examples.

Summative Assessment
Students prepare a final trend map together with a short strategic briefing note. The assignment should include organised signals of change, clearly named trends, an assessment of their potential impact and time horizon, and an indication of the most important implications for the organisation or sector under analysis. Assessment may focus on the quality of the sources used, the appropriateness of the grouping of signals, the logical justification of the trends identified, the clarity of the map, and the usefulness of the strategic insights.